European Manganese — the 2030 supply gap, the CRMA, and the producers trying to close it.

The state of play: Europe consumes manganese it doesn't make

Manganese is on the EU's Critical Raw Materials list. High-purity manganese is on the EU's Strategic Raw Materials list — the narrower subset of materials the Commission considers essential to the green and digital transitions and at structural supply risk.^[6] Almost every category of European industry depends on it: steel mills, stainless mills, fertilisers, dry-cell batteries, and — increasingly — lithium-ion battery cathodes for EVs and grid storage.

And yet, in 2026, European manganese production is effectively zero at the mining stage. The only operating Western producer of battery-grade high-purity manganese sulphate monohydrate (HPMSM) — the form of manganese used in lithium-ion battery cathodes — is Vibrantz Technologies, which runs facilities in Saint-Ghislain and Tertre, Belgium.^[3] Vibrantz's European capacity is small relative to projected EU demand and is not currently scaling at the pace required to close the gap.

Every tonne of manganese beyond Vibrantz's output that lands in a European battery cell today has been mined and refined somewhere else — predominantly China.

China refines ~96% of the world's HPMSM

The concentration is extreme by any standard. China supplies an estimated 96% of global battery-grade manganese sulphate on an industrial scale, with most refining concentrated in Guizhou province.^[1] Even allowing for differing definitions, the lowest credible figure for Chinese HPMSM share is around 85% of global refining capacity, and 90%+ is the consensus.^[7]

Manganese ore is abundant globally — South Africa, Australia, Brazil, and Gabon are major producers — so this is not a resource scarcity story. It's a refining-stage chokepoint. Converting manganese ore into the high-purity sulphate that lithium-ion cathodes need is the process step that China owns.

Global HPMSM refining — share by region

Industrial-scale, battery-grade manganese sulphate monohydrate, 2024–2025 estimates

Figures aggregated from Manganese Supply (manganesesupply.com), QY Research / Valuates HPMSM market reports, and SFA (Oxford) manganese market briefs. Chinese refining share is widely cited between 90% and 96% depending on the methodology (industrial-scale vs. installed capacity, battery-grade vs. all grades).^[1][7]

What that means in practice: every European gigafactory using manganese in its cathodes today is functionally dependent on a single-country supply chain that has demonstrated willingness to weaponise mineral exports (China imposed export controls on LFP cathode technology and rare-earth magnets in 2025).^[7]

The demand side: Europe's gigafactory build-out is enormous

Europe is in the middle of the largest battery-manufacturing build-out in its history. Estimates of installed cell capacity by 2030 range from 789 GWh (Benchmark Mineral Intelligence) to 1,083–1,458 GWh (industry consensus / McKinsey).^[5][8] Even acknowledging delays and cancellations across the sector, the trajectory is unmistakable: Europe is set to become the world's second-largest battery cell producer after China, with somewhere between 30% and 35% of global capacity.

Europe's announced battery cell capacity — pipeline to 2030

GWh installed/announced, various source estimates

Estimates: ~50 GWh installed in 2022 (industry trackers); ~458 GWh by 2025 (European Parliamentary Research Service brief, 2025); 789 GWh announced pipeline to 2030 per Benchmark Mineral Intelligence; ~1,083 GWh per EPRS midpoint; ~1,458 GWh per industry consensus including McKinsey. Range reflects different treatment of delayed/cancelled projects.^[5][8]

That cell capacity feeds an even larger downstream EV manufacturing base. Volvo Cars Košice's new EV plant (90 km from the Slovak Battery Belt deposits) is one of dozens of European auto-assembly plants pivoting to electric — including VW Bratislava, VW Wolfsburg, BMW Munich, Stellantis Trnava, Kia Žilina, JLR Nitra, and BYD Szeged. Every additional GWh of LMFP capacity in Europe directly increases manganese demand, because LMFP cathodes are 60–80% manganese by mass.^[8]

The supply–demand gap, in tonnes

Here is the most important chart on this page. European demand for battery-grade manganese is on a vertical trajectory. European operating supply is essentially flat. The widening orange wedge is the gap that has to be filled — by imports, by new domestic production, or by demand destruction. The CRMA's policy framework is designed to drive the second answer. As of 2026, only one announced primary-supply project (Chvaletice in the Czech Republic) is on a path to commercial scale, and even at its full nominal capacity the gap remains material.

EU battery-grade manganese — supply vs. demand, 2024–2030

Tonnes per year. Demand shown as a range: European Commission baseline (~74 kt/yr) vs. industry research consensus (~200 kt/yr, Cairn Energy Research Advisors and CPM Group, with Benchmark Mineral Intelligence's HPMSM outlook directionally consistent).

Two demand cases plotted. The lower curve is the European Commission Manganese factsheet baseline of ~74,000 tpa by 2030^[2] — the conservative regulatory reference. The upper curve is the industry research consensus of ~200,000 tpa by 2030, sourced to Cairn Energy Research Advisors and CPM Group — the two specialist battery-materials research firms whose joint forecasts underpin most published high-purity manganese market analyses.^[15] Benchmark Mineral Intelligence's separate Manganese Sulphate Market Outlook (HPMSM global demand at 3.5× 2023 levels by 2030, rising to 5.9× under aggressive LMFP adoption) and CPM Group's 13× global HPM demand expansion 2021–2031 are directionally consistent with the upper curve.^[15] Operating supply reflects the only Western HPMSM producer (Vibrantz, Saint-Ghislain/Tertre, Belgium — capacity widely cited at ~5 kt/yr).^[3] The Chvaletice ramp is an illustrative scenario: CRMA Strategic Project status March 2025; ~150 kt/yr nominal nameplate per the May 2026 PEA; commercial commissioning targeted post-feasibility (H1 2027); the chart shows a partial 2028→2030 ramp reaching ~50 kt by 2030 — well below nameplate. Recycling-route projects are excluded; their commercial tonnage depends on a retired-EV-battery feedstock pool that does not yet exist at scale.^[4]

Three observations on the chart above. First: the operating-supply line is essentially flat — Europe's only existing HPMSM producer is not scaling fast enough to meaningfully bend the curve. Second: even on the conservative European Commission baseline (~74 kt by 2030), a fully ramped Chvaletice still leaves a ~24,000 t/yr gap. Third: on the Cairn ERA / CPM Group industry consensus of ~200,000 tpa, the gap widens to ~150,000 t/yr by 2030 — which has to be filled by imports, by additional domestic production, or by demand destruction. Today, "imports" means China.

This is the structural opportunity for additional primary-mining European manganese projects — projects that the CRMA strategic list has not yet selected.

The Critical Raw Materials Act — what it is and what it does

The EU Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) entered into force in May 2024. It sets four 2030 benchmarks for materials it considers critical (manganese is on the list; high-purity manganese is on the narrower Strategic list):^[6]

• 10% of EU annual consumption from domestic extraction
• 40% from domestic processing
• 15% from domestic recycling
• Maximum 65% from any single third country (directly aimed at China)

Designated Strategic Projects get a maximum 27-month permitting timeline (vs. 5–10 years in many European jurisdictions), access to European Investment Bank (EIB) and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) financing, and coordinated regulatory support across member state bodies.^[6]

In March 2025 the Commission selected 47 Strategic Projects across 13 EU member states; the list was expanded to 60 projects later in the year.^[4] Seven of those projects involve manganese:

Project type	Country	Count	Notes
Tailings reprocessing → HPMSM	Czech Republic	1	The single primary-supply-route manganese project on the strategic list — Euro Manganese's Chvaletice project, converting legacy mine tailings rather than greenfield mining. CRMA Strategic Project status March 2025; commercial commissioning targeted post H1 2027 feasibility study.
Battery recycling (closed-loop)	France, Sweden, Poland	3	End-of-life battery streams as feedstock. Limited near-term tonnage; production scales with retired EV battery population.
Multi-metal processing	France	1	Manganese as one stream of a multi-metal refining facility. Not standalone Mn supply.
Other (mixed extraction / processing)	Various	2	Smaller or earlier-stage projects covering portions of the value chain.

Source: European Commission CRMA Strategic Projects list, March 2025.^[4]

The honest assessment

Of the seven CRMA manganese projects, only one is a primary extraction project — and even there, it's tailings reprocessing, not greenfield mining. Three are recycling-route, dependent on a retired-EV-battery feedstock pool that does not yet exist at scale. One is multi-metal processing where manganese is a side stream. The Commission's own analysis acknowledges that the selected projects cover only about 12% of projected 2030 EU manganese demand.^[4]

What is conspicuously absent from the CRMA strategic list is a greenfield primary-mining project of European manganese ore. That is the gap the Slovak Battery Belt is positioned to fill.

Worse, in February 2026 the European Court of Auditors concluded that the EU's CRMA implementation is "unlikely to deliver the targeted supply security on its current trajectory" — explicit acknowledgement that the gap is not being closed at the speed required.^[10]

Battery chemistry: why LMFP changes the math

European manganese demand is driven by two cathode chemistries: NMC (nickel-manganese-cobalt) for higher-energy-density applications, and LMFP (lithium-manganese-iron-phosphate) — the manganese-enriched cousin of LFP — which is now the fastest-growing chemistry in the EV market.^[11]

LMFP cathodes contain 60–80% manganese by mass. Both BASF and Umicore — Europe's two largest cathode producers — have publicly announced plans to scale manganese-rich battery chemistries.^[8] LFP/LMFP combined are forecast to capture roughly 49% of EU battery market share by 2030, rising to ~52% by 2035.^[11]

The catch: Europe does not currently manufacture LMFP cells domestically. China does. Every gigafactory tonne of LMFP capacity Europe builds adds to its manganese-import dependence, and adds to the upside for any domestic European manganese producer that can reach commercial scale.

The price signal

Battery-grade manganese sulphate (32% Mn, ex-factory) was priced at approximately $793 USD/tonne on Shanghai Metals Market in late 2025.^[12] The global manganese sulphate market was valued at $554 million in 2025, projected to reach $1.29 billion by 2032 at a 13.0% CAGR. The battery-grade HPMSM sub-segment alone is forecast to grow at 16.9% CAGR through 2033.^[13]

These are not the price dynamics of an oversupplied commodity. They're the price dynamics of a structurally undersupplied market where every demand increase outruns supply additions. For a domestic European producer, that price environment translates directly into project economics with margins materially above traditional industrial-minerals comparables.

Where Union Power Metals fits

Union Power Metals controls 24.3 Mt of combined historic manganese resource across two Slovak deposits — Švabovce and Michalova — together forming what is likely the largest manganese resource package in the European Union.^[14] Slovakia's "Battery Belt" sits within 250 km of VW Bratislava, Kia Žilina, Stellantis Trnava, and JLR Nitra — four major auto-assembly plants producing roughly 1 million vehicles per year between them — and within 90 km of the new Volvo Cars Košice EV plant (production 2026–27).

The Slovak deposits have three structural advantages for European battery-supply economics:

• Carbonate ore mineralogy. Manganese carbonate ore skips the energy-intensive roasting step required for oxide ores — 70–80% lower processing energy, lower CO₂ footprint, fewer impurities, going directly to acid leaching.
• Pilot-scale metallurgy already proven. Three Czechoslovak research institutes tested Švabovce ore in 1956–57 with 92–99%+ recovery using sulfuric acid, SO₂, and nitric acid. A Prague pilot plant produced electrolytic Mn metal from this exact ore before 1957. The route to battery-grade HPMSM is established, not theoretical.
• EU-internal logistics. Truck-distance from mine gate to gigafactory is short — Slovakia → Germany → France in two days. No border crossings outside the customs union, no shipping insurance complexity, no port congestion exposure.

The full project case is on the Slovakia Manganese, Michalova, and Švabovce pages. The interactive supply/demand visualisation is on the HPMSM Supply & Demand Map. The full market deep-dive is on the Manganese Market page.

The takeaway

European manganese in 2026 is a structural shortage hiding in plain sight. The supply side is dominated by a single country to a degree unmatched by any other critical raw material. The demand side is locked in by hundreds of billions of euros of committed gigafactory investment. The policy side has named the problem (CRMA), but the European Court of Auditors has now publicly stated the response is inadequate. The price side rewards the first domestic producers to reach scale.

The companies that can plausibly become primary European manganese suppliers — and there are very few — are positioned at the intersection of the EU's most concentrated supply risk and its largest domestic industrial build-out. Union Power Metals is one of them.